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The Yuan 2023: Things that AI might become capable of in 2023
By Calum Chace  |  Dec 29, 2022
The Yuan 2023: Things that AI might become capable of in 2023
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As the world looks to the new year, one question is whether 2023 will be a year of AI ‘big bangs’ where there are major breakthroughs, or whether it is more likely to be a year where existing AI gets ‘bigger and bigger,’ improving on existing capabilities and gradually adding new ones, all while making fewer of the mistakes that have caused many people to doubt it. AI alignment will become increasingly important as humanity strives to make sure that AI’s goals still align with its own.

LONDON - 2023 is likely to be an eventful year for artificial intelligence (AI), with plenty of things to keep an eye on both in the immediate future and the longer term. This article will lay out some of the possibilities, and various scenarios that might unfold.

Big bangs

2022 marked the 10th anniversary of the big bang in AI, when Geoff Hinton and some of his colleagues introduced deep learning, a relaunch of neural networks. Deep learning enabled the Big Tech firms in the United States and China to build products and services which generated enormous amounts of money - the first time that AI was actually lucrative.

This year was also the fifth anniversary of a second big bang in AI - the advent of transformer models like GPT-3 and Dall-E. These are AI systems which achieve remarkable results by predicting what token (a piece of text or image) will come next in a sequence. In the last couple of years, AI researchers at OpenAI, Deep Mind and others have leapfrogged each other by announcing increasingly powerful natural language processing transformer models. They are also known as large language models, or foundation models.

Bigger and bigger

These models amaze people by producing human-like text, photorealistic images - and more recently, video sequences - when prompted by a single sentence. During 2023, these models will get even larger and more powerful. They will also continue to surprise researchers with their capabilities, and will become less ‘brittle,’ i.e., less inclined to make what look to humans like silly mistakes.

Partly as a result of this, more people will start to take the possibility that artificial general intelligence (AGI) and then superintelligence may arrive

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