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Three considerations for turning predictive models prescriptive
By Scott Burk  |  Jun 01, 2023
Three considerations for turning predictive models prescriptive
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This article is part four of the ongoing series: AI Prediction, AI Prescription and Causation in Medicine. Predictive and prescriptive models both have uses but transforming models into prescriptive ones leads to more valuable insights, explains CUNY data science Prof Scott Burk.

AUSTIN, TEXAS -

Two questions are at the forefront of healthcare today:

1. Does an individual patient have a specific disease, e.g., a specific cancer?

2. What treatment should be prescribed to achieve an optimal outcome for such a patient?

AI predictive models answer the first question, while AI prescriptive models answer the second. While both are important, it is easy to see more value in answering the second one. If one only knows the state of a disease but not how to treat the individual patient effectively, it is just an academic exercise. By knowing what the proper treatment protocols are for specific patients, it then becomes possible to relieve their pain or even cure them. That is why the idea of targeted prescriptive methods is so valuable.

Note: The term ‘individual patient’ is used for a reason. This is because AI models can provide personalized medical diagnoses and treatments based on unique patient characteristics, which is an approach very different from traditional population health methods based on statistics for groups of people. If readers would like to see a discussion of these differences in a future article, please leave a comment.

AI predictive models have different data and mathematical requirements than do AI prescriptive models. This article will examine options for transforming predictive models into prescriptive ones in a later section, but before that it is important to first state some brief requirements for each of these advanced analytics.


Basic assumptions for predictive modeling

1. The correlation or association between what is being predicted (target, dependent variable, predictions) and the predic

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